Analysis of the Role of Non-State Actors in Sub-Saharan Africa
Executive summary:
Team Least Squares is tasked with determining the role of non-state actors (NSA) in Sub-Saharan Africa. Additional guidance by the decision maker (Bill Reynolds) is to use multiple analytical techniques and maintain detailed documentation of these techniques for further assessment. Team Least Squares’ analytical concept is devised to utilize and compare the products of analytical techniques using a “3-Dimensional model.” This model will allow analysts and the decision maker to easily and efficiently see the interaction of multiple techniques and key indicators. The result will be a structured comparison of each technique and key indicator as they have been applied to a target non-state actor.
Initial Collection:
The initial collection will consist of a board survey of Sub-Saharan countries and the NSAs that reside within its borders. The survey will have three main purposes:
1) Initial collection will survey the available information and assess its meaning/relevance in international affairs.
2) Analysts will attempt to identify indicators of the role of NSAs in Sub-Saharan Africa.
3) Analysts will determine the analytical methods that will be most effective at answering the intelligence requirement
Indicators:
Some indicators will be obvious and typical. It is known that China’s strategy to acquire access to extractive industry is to gain access for the least cost, regardless of other political considerations. Therefore, countries in which extractive resources are owned by a minimal amount of individuals/interests present the greatest opportunity for China; where as, countries with privatized ownership of extractive resources would present China with multiple owners of oil field, mines, etc and inevitably cost more money to acquire such access. State ownership/ Private ownership of extractive resources is an indicator of China’s interest and engagement of a country for purposes of gaining access to extractive resources. What about atypical indicators?
Perhaps the percentage of a population afflicted with malaria or HIV directly correlates to membership in a terrorist or separatist organization. Perhaps the common religion or ideology of a country directly correlates to the strength of tribal bounds. Such indicators can only be identified through careful study. This is one of the purposes of the initial collection/ informational survey.
Analytical Methods:
Initial collection/informational survey will allow the analysts to develop an understanding of the “informational terrain” with regards to the role of NSA in Sub-Saharan Africa. Analysts will use this understanding of the informational terrain to select analytical methods most effective for developing analysis to satisfy the intelligence requirements. Analytical methods may include but are not limited to:
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Demographic Analysis
Geographic Analysis
Social Network Analysis
Regression Analysis
Link Analysis
Citation Analysis
Multi-Attribute Analysis
3-Dimensional Analysis:
3-Deminsional analysis refers to the use of multiple analytical techniques and their comparison to indicators. Team Least Squares will select several analytical methods to assessment the role of NSA in Sub-Saharan Africa. Those techniques will be used to assess individual NSAs. In order to compare a NSA to other actors, in terms of “role”, the analysts will devise a value scale to determine the functional and influential roles NSAs play in geopolitics. Analysts will also select the most accurate and indicative indicators, develop a similar value scale and assign values to each NSA. The analysts can then observe the interaction between analytical methods and indicators to identify patterns and the relationship between indicators and the assessments.
NSA-1 refers to non-state actor 1 (see figure above). NSA-1, in the above diagram, is analyzed on the basis of four indicators and four role assessment perspectives. NSA-1 analysis would consist of 16 cubes demonstrating the interaction between each indicator and each role assessment. Each cube would have an indicator value, a role assessment value and an interaction value (i.e. I-1 value “A”=R-1 value “B”...see diagram below). Indicator interactions are then assessed and compared to reveal patterns in NSA indicators and NSA roles. These patterns can then be used to generate indicator/role relationships. These relationships would then be the source of building a predictive model for the role of non-state actors in Sub-Saharan Africa.
3-Dimensional analysis also determines which analytical methods and indicators develop the most accurate intelligence picture of the different types of non-state actors (i.e. NGOs, paramilitary groups, etc). The end result is a measurable comparison of analytical method and indicator accuracy, as well as analytical confidence (see example 3-D matrix below).
Conceptual Model of Analysis:
Analysis of the Role of Non-State Actors in Sub-Saharan Africa
Executive summary:
Team Least Squares is tasked with determining the role of non-state actors (NSA) in Sub-Saharan Africa. Additional guidance by the decision maker (Bill Reynolds) is to use multiple analytical techniques and maintain detailed documentation of these techniques for further assessment. Team Least Squares’ analytical concept is devised to utilize and compare the products of analytical techniques using a “3-Dimensional model.” This model will allow analysts and the decision maker to easily and efficiently see the interaction of multiple techniques and key indicators. The result will be a structured comparison of each technique and key indicator as they have been applied to a target non-state actor.
Initial Collection:
The initial collection will consist of a board survey of Sub-Saharan countries and the NSAs that reside within its borders. The survey will have three main purposes:
1) Initial collection will survey the available information and assess its meaning/relevance in international affairs.
2) Analysts will attempt to identify indicators of the role of NSAs in Sub-Saharan Africa.
3) Analysts will determine the analytical methods that will be most effective at answering the intelligence requirement
Indicators:
Some indicators will be obvious and typical. It is known that China’s strategy to acquire access to extractive industry is to gain access for the least cost, regardless of other political considerations. Therefore, countries in which extractive resources are owned by a minimal amount of individuals/interests present the greatest opportunity for China; where as, countries with privatized ownership of extractive resources would present China with multiple owners of oil field, mines, etc and inevitably cost more money to acquire such access. State ownership/ Private ownership of extractive resources is an indicator of China’s interest and engagement of a country for purposes of gaining access to extractive resources. What about atypical indicators?
Perhaps the percentage of a population afflicted with malaria or HIV directly correlates to membership in a terrorist or separatist organization. Perhaps the common religion or ideology of a country directly correlates to the strength of tribal bounds. Such indicators can only be identified through careful study. This is one of the purposes of the initial collection/ informational survey.
Analytical Methods:
Initial collection/informational survey will allow the analysts to develop an understanding of the “informational terrain” with regards to the role of NSA in Sub-Saharan Africa. Analysts will use this understanding of the informational terrain to select analytical methods most effective for developing analysis to satisfy the intelligence requirements. Analytical methods may include but are not limited to:
3-Dimensional Analysis:
3-Deminsional analysis refers to the use of multiple analytical techniques and their comparison to indicators. Team Least Squares will select several analytical methods to assessment the role of NSA in Sub-Saharan Africa. Those techniques will be used to assess individual NSAs. In order to compare a NSA to other actors, in terms of “role”, the analysts will devise a value scale to determine the functional and influential roles NSAs play in geopolitics. Analysts will also select the most accurate and indicative indicators, develop a similar value scale and assign values to each NSA. The analysts can then observe the interaction between analytical methods and indicators to identify patterns and the relationship between indicators and the assessments.
NSA-1 refers to non-state actor 1 (see figure above). NSA-1, in the above diagram, is analyzed on the basis of four indicators and four role assessment perspectives. NSA-1 analysis would consist of 16 cubes demonstrating the interaction between each indicator and each role assessment. Each cube would have an indicator value, a role assessment value and an interaction value (i.e. I-1 value “A”=R-1 value “B”...see diagram below). Indicator interactions are then assessed and compared to reveal patterns in NSA indicators and NSA roles. These patterns can then be used to generate indicator/role relationships. These relationships would then be the source of building a predictive model for the role of non-state actors in Sub-Saharan Africa.
3-Dimensional analysis also determines which analytical methods and indicators develop the most accurate intelligence picture of the different types of non-state actors (i.e. NGOs, paramilitary groups, etc). The end result is a measurable comparison of analytical method and indicator accuracy, as well as analytical confidence (see example 3-D matrix below).